Dick De Jong
June 3, 2009
HDTV Solutions

Even before I read that a representative from the OLED Association had labeled it, "The Great Display Technology Debate," I was anticipating the last panel discussion of the day at DisplaySearch's Business Conference at the SID (Society for Information Display) Display Week in San Antonio.

With Jim Palumbo, the President of the Plasma Display Coalition, Bruce Berkoff, the Chairman of the LCD Television Association and Barry Young, the Managing Director of the OLED Association sharing the stage, I figured that this would be an ideal event to illuminate the current state of HDTVs.

Indeed, the three speakers did shed some light on where the technologies stood in the marketplace today. But if you were expecting verbal fisticuffs, you would have been disappointed because the polite sparring between old colleagues turned out to be more Vanilla than Thrilla in Manilla.

For me, how the session proceeded was as informative as what was said. Each participant was instructed to give a five minute introduction and then the session would be opened up for questions and answers.

Barry Young started and launched into an informative but long (15 minutes?) presentation about the benefits of OLEDs, (better contrast, wider gamut and lower power). Considering that the only OLED TV currently available is Sony's $2500 11" XEL-1, OLEDs are still more of a concept than a reality in the marketplace. Therefore, I was not surprised that Barry took so long to introduce the new kid on the block.

Next up was Bruce Berkoff who raced through a snappy, animated history of how LCDs have succeeded in dominating the HDTV market with good products and a never give up, never give in attitude.

Finally, a laconic Jim Palumbo wrapped up with a two minute snippet on how the Plasma Display Coalition is working with California and other states on legislation about energy requirements of new HDTVs.

In that first twenty minutes, I felt like I just witnessed the current state of HDTVs. OLEDs are still more talk than product. LCDs are a fast moving, unrelenting presence. And plasmas are comfortable as performance kings and they don't need to roar about it.

To be fair, in the Q & A session that followed, Palumbo did defend his domain by describing how plasmas still are the display of choice for videophiles and how they maintain a dominance in the over 50" category. Though he admitted that plasma proponents may have missed their chance to grab market share a few years ago when everyone acknowledged that their picture quality was notably better than LCDs. I saw many in the audience nod in agreement.

Berkoff, on the other hand, smiled like a racer who looks in the rearview mirror and revels as his rival eats his dust. As the sales numbers indicate, consumers have made LCDs the display du jour. And the manufacturers are not resting on their laurels as they pump money into R & D and new fabrication plants.

With the LCD juggernaut rolling along, Young was queried about how OLEDs can become a player in the HDTV arena. Part of the answer is based on the premise that manufacturers would not have do a major retooling of their factories to shift to OLEDs.

Hearing Young talk after the session, I could imagine how a major manufacturer could take the OLED leap and commit the needed resources. Even with that impetus, DisplaySearch does not forecast that OLEDs will win any appreciable market share in the near future and only about 5% by 2015.

Though even Young admits that for OLEDs to be successful they will have to be a vastly superior product because initially they will be expensive compared to the LCD or plasma alternatives.

The question is, if Sony comes out with a 27" OLED this holiday season, how cool does it have to look for you to buy it for $5000 or more?

Stay tuned.